The Polish Association for National Security presents a new publication: „Hybrid War. Threats to Powet Grid Infrastructure,” authored by Prof. Jarosław Tomasiewicz, Dr. Michał Piekarski, and Dr. Marcin Lipka. The publication was released as part of the R-GRID project: AI algorithms for Threat Prediction and Power Grid Protection.

The authors attempt to „demystify” the concept of hybrid war, treating it not as something dark and exceptional, but as one of the ways of waging war, alongside air warfare or guerrilla warfare. The monograph organizes the evolution of this concept and situates it within historical precedents, from the Soviet hybrid war in Europe (1918–1925) and the Polish-Lithuanian conflict over the Vilnius region, to German actions against Czechoslovakia in 1938, and then systematizes the full spectrum of contemporary hybrid instruments: political-legal, economic-social, information-psychological, intelligence, military, and cyber.

The book’s main thesis is the evolution of hybridity toward „algorithmic warfare,” where artificial intelligence becomes a „force multiplier,” shifting the center of gravity of conflict from the physical destruction of an adversary’s potential toward the permanent destabilization of a state’s cognitive and infrastructural structures, while simultaneously accelerating the decision-making loop. Ukraine is treated here as a testing ground for contemporary warfare technologies.

The authors identify, among others, the following threat vectors for critical energy infrastructure:

• automated cyberattacks on OT/ICS systems (SCADA) and strategic operations designed to trigger cascading failures,
• energy terrorism combined with disinformation and deepfake technology,
• the blurring of traditional boundaries of conflict, drone swarms, and operations in the underwater domain.

The publication also addresses building dynamic resilience of power grids and maintaining business continuity based on AI: predictive analytics and early warning, autonomous cyber defense, decentralization and microgrids („energy islands”), and methods for identifying cognitive manipulation.

The monograph concludes with recommendations for public administration bodies, services, and critical infrastructure operators.

The publication is addressed to decision-makers and practitioners responsible for national security and critical infrastructure protection, including board members of energy sector companies and experts responsible for business continuity management. It will also serve as a valuable source of knowledge for researchers, journalists, and students.

The R-GRID project: AI algorithms for Threat Prediction and Power Grid Protection [G6249] was funded under the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme, carried out by a consortium consisting of: the Polish Association for National Security, the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, Laurea University of Applied Sciences, and Akces NCBR Sp. z o.o. (formerly Ideas NCBR Sp. z o.o.).